Tag Archives: Banknotes of the pound sterling

Goodbye to £5 and £10 notes?

The  Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane’s speech. caused some raised  eyebrows recently. It sounds like he knows we’re in for some tough economic times ahead. Things are so desperate that it  might require the abolition of cash in the economy!  People will be forced to hold money in banks and see its value dwindle.

As Andy Haldane has put it “A more radical proposal still would be to remove the ZLB (zero lower bound) constraint entirely by abolishing paper currency.”

We could perhaps begrudgingly say Andy Haldane has shown political and economic courage in saying this. If we are being charitable we could credit Mr Haldane for highlighting the intellectual bankruptcy of most mainstream modern economic thinking. If we wished to be less charitable we’d have to say the idea of abolishing cash is about as stupid as it gets!

I hope it is the former and that cash won’t be abolished. But this isn’t the first time we’ve heard this silly argument argument from monetarist economists and in particular from Kenneth Rogoff. See  here  and  here. That they feel the need to make it shows they still haven’t really grasped that interest rates can’t have the controlling  effect they think they have on the wider economy.

When intelligent men like Rogoff and Haldane have silly ideas, political ideology is usually to blame. The main argument for banning cash, other than to hinder criminals and tax-dodgers, which is no stronger an argument now than it has ever been, is to facilitate sharply negative interest rates. But if we want to stimulate the economy, as we do right now, there’s an obvious and much easier alternative: ie loosen fiscal policy. Increase government spending and reduce levels of taxation.

The only reason to suggest something as outlandish as banning printed currency is that you believe this alternative to be impossible. Or, rather impossible according to one’s own political ideology.

Monetarism all sounds fine – superficially. When times are good interest rates are increased to slow the economy down. When times are bad they are lowered to stimulate lending and get it moving again. There’s no need for government to be involved at all. They can concentrate on balancing the books like any good business should.

Except that every stimulus leads to the build up of private debt in the economy. This build up slows down economic activity, and so we later have to have another reduction in interest rates. Then another and yet another after that . If we get it all wrong then there can even be a giant crash in the economy when those who’ve taken on too much private debt go bust and cause their creditors to go bust too.

So, eventually we arrive at the situation, as we have now, where interest rates in much of the western world  are close to zero and they need to go negative according to the theory to stimulate the economy again. Economists with more intelligence are saying “Whoa! There must be something wrong with the theory”. Others with less insight are saying “But this is just the special case of the zero lower bound” and those with no insight at all, or are stupefied by their own political ideology, are ploughing on regardless and calling for the abolition of cash!

Leaving aside the argument that many of us quite like the convenience of using cash, it’s much quicker than messing about with credit cards at the petrol station for example, it is a genuinely bad idea to go down the road of negative interest rates which will lead to an ever increasing build up of private debt in the economy.

Mainstream (ie Neo -Classical and Monetarist in outlook) economists didn’t spot the onset of the GFC because they didn’t  know where to look for the warning signals. The role of private debt in leading to booms and busts was denied. Expanding the “money supply” was the only standard remedy for stimulating economic activity and the risk of creating asset bubbles was largely ignored with disastrous consequences.

I may come back to the question of private debt in the economy later but for now I’ll just reference Prof Steve Keen’s excellent blog on the perils of debt deflation.

Advertisements

How to Balance the Government Budget. The MMT way! (Part 2)

To fix the UK economy requires that aggregate demand be increased. Nearly all politicians understand that. Except, the favoured way, and some might say the only way, for those on the right of the political spectrum is to create a credit bubble to encourage more private spending through more private borrowing. That’s not an option for the foreseeable future as the private sector is now saturated in debt. So saturated , in fact, that we’ll have another crash in the next couple of years unless the next government acts quickly to prevent it. That will require them to spend in a sensible fashion but nevertheless spend big time. Realistically, it is going to be a difficult sell electorally. The problem, for those politicians wishing to advocate this line, will be questions such as “where’s the money going to come from?”  and comments such as we “can’t afford” to do that.

Of course, the money comes from where all money comes from in the first instance, and as Keynes said, if something can be done it can be afforded. The only danger of too much spending is too much inflation. The danger of too little spending is the recession we have now, both in the UK and, even worse, in the Eurozone.

The problem is that the electorate, and most politicians, don’t understand economics. That’s not surprising. The mainstream media don’t explain it at all correctly. To most people, the government is like a company or a household. To spend money it has first to acquire money. That’s true for a user but not at all the case with an issuer of currency.

It’s rather like living in society where everyone thinks the world is flat. If we insist the world is really round then they might not like that and vote for someone else. We, in turn,  wouldn’t like that so the best approach may be to pretend we think the world is flat too, and work our way around the problem as best we can!

One way is to redefine what we mean by ‘government deficit’. As Neil Wilson has recently noticed, Ed Balls has been astute enough to use the term ‘current deficit’.

http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2014/12/how-to-eliminate-uk-deficit-trick.html

I think we all missed the inclusion of the extra word for slightly too long, so full marks to Neil for spotting that. Maybe, we gave Ed slightly more criticism than he may have deserved over his advocacy of ‘balancing the books’.

So what could be the plan? The idea is simply that we shouldn’t count capital spending, just current spending. On a personal level,  current spending is our going down to the pub and drinking a few pints. We’ve nothing to show for it the morning after. Capital , or investment spending, would be on building a house or investing in a viable business. The value of that would, if we drew one up,  appear on our personal balance sheet, so even if we went into the red financially we would still be in the black overall once the value of the physical assets was counted.

So how’s it going to work for government?  Current spending is, amongst other things, paying out unemployment benefits. Capital spending includes electrifying all railways and building houses.  The government is in a very advantageous position when it comes to doing anything in the economy. Unlike you or I, it doesn’t have to borrow money at high interest rates. It can either just create the money or borrow it via the sale of gilts at very low interest payments. Also unlike a private developer which has to pay taxes to government during the course of the development, government actually receives taxes. Therefore if a private developer can build at a profit, then government can do the same thing and make an even bigger ‘profit’.

So say it decides to build a £100 million residential development. It classes that as investment spending or capital spending so it doesn’t appear on the books as a ‘current deficit’.  It hands out contracts to builders in the private sector and most of that money gets spent on wages. Either directly, on the wages and salaries of building workers, architects etc, or in the process of the labour that goes into making bricks, concrete, timber, tiles etc. So straightway some £30 million or so comes back as taxes and NI payments. The bricks, concrete etc attract VAT when they are purchased. So that’s probably another £10 million or so going back into government coffers. That revenue is classed as current revenue so it reduces the ‘current deficit’.

Then that remaining £60 million gets spent and respent in the economy. At every stage taxes are levied. 20% VAT, corporation tax, capital gains tax, fuel taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxes, yet more income tax and NI, plus lots more taxes too that we can all think of. The end result is that nearly all that £100 million goes back to government. At the same time building workers who were unemployed have now found jobs so don’t need to be paid dole money any longer.

Then government can take delivery of those £100 million worth of flats or houses , say about 400 of them at £250k each.  It then sells them to a housing association or  co-operative and gets all its money back. But it’s already got it back anyway! Alternatively it can rent out the residences directly, or via a lease arrangement with the co-operative, and collect the lease or rents, which at present day prices, especially in London, will pay off any interest multiple times. That way it still owns the properties and their value appears as an asset on the government’s balance sheet.

In other words it makes a tidy profit on the deal. And no it’s not necessarily inflationary, when there are unused resources available.  Government will have created something extra for sale in the economy. Inflation has to be about more money chasing the same amount of goods not more money chasing extra goods.

It can repeat the same idea in lots of other ways too. For example, it can extend and modernise the Underground in London. It can start to construct Underground railways in other major cities like Manchester, Birmingham  and Liverpool. The spending is classed as ‘investment’ or ‘capital.’ The revenue from the spending is classed as ‘current’.  The price tag  is not important, providing that the resources are available and unused, and providing  we create useful jobs paying living wages, we can  always afford to pay for them. By creating jobs we are not just investing in infrastructure, but we are also investing in people, enhancing their participation in  society and providing them with the means to support themselves and  their dependents. We can always afford that.

Is this what Ed Balls has in mind?  His Bloomberg speech shows  he knows enough about economics to suggest that he does.

http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=907

 

Who’s running the smarter economy: the UK or Germany? #2

What’s the rationale of a country like Germany wishing to run a perpetual current account trade surplus?  Some $250 billion last year and expected to rise to $300 billion in 2015. That’s a bigger surplus than the Chinese. That desire seems to be causing a lot of trouble in the Euro Zone right now. Of course, everyone knows surpluses are good and deficits are bad. But, is that really the case?

Running a trade surplus in euros means running a trade deficit in real goods and services. That deficit must mean that German living standards aren’t what they should be. As anyone who has visited Germany recently will know, there are many Germans who aren’t at all wealthy, and struggle to get by.

If the Germans sell more to the UK in one year, that then gives them more ££ in their kitty to buy more stuff from the UK in the following year, which would of course be fair enough. But what is the point of their wanting to continue to do the same thing year in year out? They are just building up large reserves of UK government securities denominated in ££ which they won’t ever spend. That is, until they decide to become a net importer, but that seems totally contrary to German economic “philosophy.” If that’s the right word!

It’s the same story with America and many other countries too.The Germans like to accumulate US$ which they can never spend. What’s the point of always swapping 4 pigs for 3 equally valuable sheep and taking an IOU to make up the difference? They end up with more IOUs for sheep than they need and more than the sheep producers can possibly supply.

The Germans could do just as well by selling cars to the fictitious state of Atlantis. They could sell as many BMWs, Audis and as much of whatever else they make as they liked, then just dump the lot in the middle of the Atlantic ocean. They would get paid in pretend Atlantis dollars which they could never spend of course. (Except perhaps with the Chinese?) But, as they seem happy to accumulate large reserves of other currencies which they have no intention of ever spending, what would be the difference?

There needs to be a general rethink of how countries should balance their trade. It seems to make little sense to wish to have a perpetual surplus of exports for the exporters. If the importers were wise to the ways of MMT then they might not worry about their deficits, both external and internal, quite so much as they do. That doesn’t seem likely to happen any time soon, unfortunately, so the next best thing would be for everyone else to be challenge the big exporting countries like Germany, Denmark, Singapore, Switzerland and China and ask them why they are so keen to earn money which they can’t or won’t spend.